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UFC 269 betting angles, prediction: Dustin Poirier’s busy 12 months may harm him

VSiN’s MMA skilled seems at some betting angles for the 2 marquee matchups at Saturday’s UFC 269 in Las Vegas. 

Charles Oliveira (+135) vs. Dustin Poirier (-165), light-weight (155 kilos) championship 

Poirier has turn into a family identify since defeating Conor McGregor twice this 12 months, and whereas Poirier is the top-ranked contender, most regard him because the champ. This bout is essential for Poirier, who needs to pair the championship belt with the riches and fame he earned from these two fights with McGregor. It all appears wrapped up properly for him. 

Poirier has been in with the elite of the division and has dominated, apart from a one-sided loss to then-champ Khabib Nurmagomedov in 2019. He’d received 4 spectacular fights earlier than that and has added Dan Hooker and McGregor pelts to his mantle since. 

Poirier at his finest is extraordinarily well-rounded. He’s massive for the load class and has deft placing, strong grappling, wrestling and is as powerful and decided as any athlete on the roster. The indisputable fact that he’s a southpaw provides extra complexity to his arsenal. 

Dustin Poirier tries to kick Conor McGregor throughout a UFC 264.

Oliveira and combat followers in every single place understand that the interim championship he received towards Michael Chandler in May solely gave Oliveira the suitable to face Poirier on Saturday to find out the authentic champion of the light-weight division. 

Oliveira is an underappreciated fighter. Some years in the past, he toiled, struggled and bounced between two divisions looking for himself. He even picked up a “quitter” fame that he has since fully overcome. 

Oliveira is the taller, longer man, and his size, quickness, placing accuracy and third-degree black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu will problem the bodily thicker Poirier. Look no additional than Poirier’s comparatively lackluster efficiency towards the lengthy, lanky Hooker to ascertain the jeopardy Oliveira will current to Poirier. 

Oliveira is properly conscious that he actually owns no title till this bout with Poirier is settled. The apex of his profession lies forward, and we are able to depend on his 100% focus, dedication and energy. 

Charles Oliveira at the UFC 269 press conference Thursday.
Charles Oliveira on the UFC 269 press convention Thursday.
Getty Images

For Poirier, this has been an enormous 12 months. He earned the riches and fame that he so yearned for when he beat the charade that’s McGregor twice. He’s efficiently created and funded a dynamic charity in Louisiana for underprivileged youngsters, which is admirable however absolutely takes some psychological power to pioneer. 

Add to these distractions the truth that this was Poirier’s third five-round championship title combat coaching camp this 12 months. I can’t assist however imagine that Poirier’s efficiency will likely be affected by all of this on Saturday. 

Two mentally draining and bodily taxing camps then the precise bouts towards an icon like McGregor now backed up with a 3rd camp towards an opponent way more versed and harmful than the one-dimensional McGregor. 

Poirier opened -150 for this combat. He is now -165, and his worth is rising. I imagine Poirier is the recipient of recency bias. It’s my judgment that one is paying a hefty tax contemplating Poirier at this worth and on this scenario. 

The choose: Oliveira, +135. I’ll take a unit now and if it goes up, I’ll take one other. 

Amanda Nunes (-1000) vs. Julianna Pena (+600), ladies’s bantamweight (135 kilos) championship 

Amanda Nunes (left) and Julianna Pena (right) face off ahead of UFC 269.
Amanda Nunes (left) and Julianna Pena (proper) face off forward of UFC 269.
Getty Images

Champion Nunes shares the title of most dominant ladies’s combined martial artist of all time with Valentina Shevchenko, in the event you ask me. 

Nunes, who additionally owns the featherweight (145-pound) title, has principally cleaned out two divisions within the UFC, although that is her first bout at bantamweight since 2019. Nunes has earned a brown belt in Judo, a black belt in BJJ and she or he’s a strongest striker who can be gifted on the bottom. 

Pena, the “Venezuelan Vixen,” arrives on a one-fight successful streak! Yes, she was awarded this bout after a one-sided win over Sara McMann. In her earlier bout, she was completed by Germaine de Randamie, who, by the way in which, was dominated by Nunes in 2019. 

Pena has respectable placing potential, however she received’t need to stand with Nunes. Her solely path to victory will likely be to attempt to bum-rush Nunes, combat loopy, then take Nunes to the canvas for a grappling exposition. 

If Pena has the tough-mindedness, wrestling, power and cardio to get this bout to the ground, she’ll have an opportunity to compete. Shy of that, this bout units as much as be an exhibition, assuming Nunes has no points with weigh-ins. Total on this combat 1.5 Over -110. 

Lou Finocchiaro handicaps MMA for Point Spread Weekly, VSiN’s digital journal for sports activities bettors. 

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